搜索结果: 1-13 共查到“model uncertainty”相关记录13条 . 查询时间(0.078 秒)
Model Uncertainty and Policy Choice:A Plea for Integrated Subjectivism
models decision theory subjectivism climate science economics policy
2016/6/13
A question at the intersection of scientific modeling and public choice is how to deal with uncertainty about model predictions. This "high-level" uncertainty is necessarily value-laden, and thus must...
Model Uncertainty in Sociological Research: An Application to Religion and Economic Growth
Sociological Research Religion and Economic Growth
2015/6/23
Model uncertainty is pervasive in quantitative research. Classical statistical theory
assumes that only one (true) model is applied to a sample of data. In practice, however,
researchers do not know...
Criteria for Factorial Designs Under Model Uncertainty
Criteria for Factorial Designs Model Uncertainty
2015/3/20
Criteria for Factorial Designs Under Model Uncertainty.
Model-based dose finding under model uncertainty using general parametric models
Model-based model uncertainty parametric models
2013/6/13
Statistical methodology for the design and analysis of clinical Phase II dose response studies, with related software implementation, are well developed for the case of a normally distributed, homosce...
Portfolio Insurance and model uncertainty
Minimum-wealth or income- stream guarantee Model uncertainty Portfolio Insurance Portfolio selection
2011/9/16
Some real-world insurance products contain a minimum-wealth or an income-stream guarantee, both of which have to he met irrespective of capital market conditions. Therefore, sellers of such products a...
Dynamic risk measuring under model uncertainty: taking advantage of the hidden probability measure
Dynamic risk model uncertainty hidden probability measure
2011/2/28
We study dynamic risk measures in a very general framework enabling to model uncertainty and processes with jumps. We previously showed the existence of a canonical equivalence class of probability me...
The framework of this paper is that of uncertainty, that is when no reference probability measure is given. To every convex regular risk measure $\rho$ on ${\cal C}_b(\Omega)$, we associate a canonica...
Assessment of conceptual model uncertainty for the regional aquifer Pampa del Tamarugal – North Chile
conceptual model uncertainty regional aquifer Pampa del Tamarugal North Chile
2010/2/20
In this work we assess the uncertainty in modelling the groundwater flow for the Pampa del Tamarugal Aquifer (PTA) – North Chile using a novel and fully integrated multi-model approach aimed at explic...
Assessment of conceptual model uncertainty for the regional aquifer Pampa del Tamarugal – North Chile
conceptual model uncertainty regional aquifer Pampa Tamarugal North Chile
2010/3/5
In this work we assess the uncertainty in modelling the groundwater flow for the Pampa del Tamarugal Aquifer (PTA) – North Chile using a novel and fully integrated multi-model approach aimed at explic...
Cascading model uncertainty from medium range weather forecasts (10 days) through a rainfall-runoff model to flood inundation predictions within the European Flood Forecasting System (EFFS)
Generalised Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation weather forecasts uropean Flood Forecasting System
2009/5/18
The political pressure on the scientific community to provide medium to long term flood forecasts has increased in the light of recent flooding events in Europe. Such demands can be met by a system co...
Bayesian projection approaches to variable selection and exploring model uncertainty
Bayesian variable selection Kullback-Leibler projection lasso non-negative garotte preconditioning
2010/3/17
A Bayesian approach to variable selection which is based on the expected Kullback-
Leibler divergence between the full model and its projection onto a submodel has
recently been suggested in the lit...
Model uncertainty in claims reserving within Tweedie's compound Poisson models
Claims reserving model uncertainty Tweedie’s compound Poisson model Bayesian analysis model selection model averaging Markov chain Monte Carlo
2010/10/29
In this paper we examine the claims reserving problem using Tweedie’s compound Poisson model. We develop the maximum likelihood and Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation approaches to fit the m...
Evaluation of hydrological models for scenario analyses:signal-to-noise-ratio between scenario effects and model uncertainty
hydrological models scenario analyses signal-to-noise-ratio scenario effects model uncertainty
2010/1/25
Many model applications suffer from the fact that although it is well known that model application implies different sources of uncertainty there is no objective criterion to decide whether a model is...